Author: Normad Capital

CARR – Carrier Global: Another Buying Opportunity Has Presented Itself

Written by Normad Capital on May 29, 2023. Posted in Penny Stocks.

Summary

Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) should continue to benefit from the long-term secular tailwinds in the HVAC market. In the short-term, growth will see tailwind from the replacement cycle, particularly in the residential sector, as summers are getting hotter and winters are getting shorter, which increases the likelihood of breakdowns and necessitates emergency replacements. The share price has moved in the direction I expected previously, until the latest earnings which has complicated things. Especially the Viessmann deal which I think is strategically accretive, but the market seems to not give CARR the benefit of doubt (given how the share price has moved). I believe the stock is still undervalued, and management is moving the business (through M&A and reorg) in the right direction. I reiterate my buy rating.

Viessmann acquisition

Let’s address the most pressing issue first: the Viessmann acquisition. The terms of the deal call for EUR12 billion to be paid by CARR, with cash accounting for 80% and stock for the remaining 20%. The purchase price implies a multiple of 17.1x FY23 EBITDA. In my opinion, this transaction significantly strengthens CARR’s strategic position in the European residential HVAC market, with a particular emphasis on heat pumps. From a financial synergies standpoint, I believe there is nothing to dislike given Viessmann is expected to grow at 10% CAGR for the next several years – which I note is higher than CARR consolidated growth rate. CARR will also extract about €200 million in cost synergies, most of which are driven by the supply chain, so I think it’s safe to assume that this goal will be easily met. The transaction multiple might seem high from the headline, but after adjusting for the EUR200 million cost synergies, the multiple comes down to around 13x. Since CARR is forking over a higher multiple than it generates on its own, some investors may view this as pricey. However, I believe the post-synergy multiple is alright given Viessmann is expected to grow faster than CARR and it has proven track record of high, sustained growth. Since 2020, Viessmann’s sales and EBITDA have grown at a CAGR of more than 15%, and continued double-digit expansion is expected through 2023. Importantly, Viessmann’s portfolio includes smart home controls and applications, as well as renewable energy capabilities and home battery storage, which are all complementary to CARR’s portfolio, and CARR management intends to scale this internationally. I expect revenue synergies here as well, which I think management is not being vocal about yet. In addition to the portfolio synergies, Viessmann will allow CARR to enter the lucrative European residential market, where 80-90% of the business is replacement work, as noted by management. By leveraging on Viessmann well-established distribution system across Europe thanks to its premium brand, unified digital platform, and network of 75,000 installer partners, I expect CARR to efficiently capture the Europe demand.

Reorg

While the big corporate action is ongoing, CARR is also getting a lot of attention for its Fire & Security [F&S] and Commercial Refrigeration business (planned for divesture). From the details provided during the 2023 Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference, Commercial Refrigeration will be a divestment but there are other plans for F&S. Unlike the Commercial Refrigeration, I believe management should maximise the sale of F&S to further optimize the business cost structure. Management has stated that they are open to the possibility of spinning off CARR, selling F&S separately, or selling both F&S and Security separately. In my opinion, the sale and divesture of these 2 segments is positive as it allows CARR to drive towards the direction of being a company that focuses on HVAC and other intelligent climate/energy solutions.

Valuation update

Among all of these corporate action movements, I believe another buying opportunity has presented itself. While I agree that some investors are correct to sell the stock given the uncertainty surrounding the Viessmann acquisition, I believe fortune favors the brave in this case. The acquisition has strong strategic value in my opinion, and I hope it closes successfully. Previously when I wrote about CARR, the stock was trading at 17x forward earnings without the prospect of Viessmann. Today, the stock is trading at 15x forward earnings. I believe the multiple today is a lot cheaper than when it was at 17x, relatively to growth and market position. Given its streamlined portfolio following the sales, divestiture, and acquisition, CARR, in my opinion, deserves to trade at a structurally higher multiple than in the past. As a result, I believe the stock return will be driven by a re-rate in multiples back to at least its historical average of 18x. Based on this, I expect the stock to return 40%. The successful completion of the current corporate actions would be the catalyst.

Risks

The failure to acquire Viessmann due to any potential obstacles (most likely regulatory, if it happens) would be a risk that would push the stock even lower. If this occurs, the group of investors who are incorporating the Viessmann growth prospect into CARR will most likely sell the stock, and the group of investors who sold during this period (avoiding the acquisition) will be unlikely to return to the stock because the narrative surrounding the stock will be negative. Consensus estimates that have been revised will almost certainly be revised again, adding to the stock’s negative sentiment.

Conclusion

In conclusion, CARR is poised to benefit from long-term growth in the HVAC market, driven by secular tailwinds and the increasing need for replacements in the residential sector. As for the Viessmann acquisition, I believe it strategically strengthens CARR’s position in the European market, with financial synergies and growth prospects that justify the purchase price. Furthermore, the reorganization plans, including the divestment of Commercial Refrigeration and potential sell-off of the Fire & Security segment, will enable CARR to focus on its core HVAC business and intelligent climate/energy solutions. From a valuation perspective, CARR stock currently presents a buying opportunity, trading at a lower multiple than before.

TEX – Terex: Upgraded To Buy Rating As Valuation Has Corrected

Written by Normad Capital on May 29, 2023. Posted in Penny Stocks.

Overview

The decision to not invest in Terex Corporation (NYSE:TEX) previously due to concerns about profit-taking price actions was right – TEX share price corrected from mid-50s to mid-40s after my previous post. I believe the stock is now in a much more attractive valuation after the 1Q23 results, and with valuation at 6x forward EBITDA (2.8x below its long-term historical average). I thought TEX’s 1Q23 results were fantastic, especially the increased guidance for sales and margins and the significantly higher EPS than expected. In 1Q23, operating margin grew strongly as a result of strong demand across both divisions and cost-cutting measures. Management’s qualitative remarks on demand in final markets are similarly optimistic for both North America and Europe. Overall, I am changing my recommendation from neutral to a buy.

Demand/backlog

As I have stated before (in my previous post), my opinion on the demand cycle has not changed. Since dealer stock is low and fleets are getting up there in age, strong demand for TEX has persisted. In particular for aged fleets that got their replacement cycle delayed will now be tailwinds for TEX. The fact that management has acknowledged the continued vitality of the rental market lends credence to my belief that there are still segments of the market delaying the replacement cycle. When viewed through a more optimistic lens, the delay in replacement cycle may actually be beneficial, as TEX is still hampered by supply chain issues. TEX current backlog stands at $4.1 billion, which is still roughly 3x higher than its normalized levels. As such, even if customers were to come to TEX, TEX will not be able to translate this demand into sales as fast as it should. The good thing is, there has been no evidence of push-outs or cancellations in TEX’s order books. The continued disruptions in the supply chain are also reflected in the fact that TEX’s Hospital inventories rose to $48 million in 1Q. Fortunately, things are looking up and I expect it to continue to do so. Although production units are still lower than they were before the pandemic, there has been some improvement in the supply base with regards to on-time deliveries.

Guidance

Management confidence to increase FY23 guidance is definitely a positive takeaway. For revenue, the new guidance calls for a range of $4.8 billion to $5 billion ($200 million higher than prior guide at the mid point), and margins are expected to come in at 10.7% (20bps higher than prior guide). With regards to cadence, AWP sales should remain stable in 2/3Q, but then decline sequentially in 4Q due to fewer production days and lower volume at the end of the year. While overall margins improved, the AWP division’s margins will take a hit this year because of manufacturing inefficiencies related to the relocation to Mexico’s Monterrey facility. With the relocation to the new Monterrey facility having begun in March, I anticipate this margin headwind to become more pronounced in 2H23.

My outlook

Looking ahead, I believe management has the necessary execution capabilities to continue delivering as promised. In the Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference, management has specifically mentioned about their focus in growing organically but with opportunistic M&A to drive the business towards the FY27 goals. For M&A, I expect management to leverage its position to extend itself into adjacent markets such as environmental, aggregates, and utilities businesses, which will further expand the TAM and reduce cyclicality in the business. The latter is an important point as the more diversified TEX is, in terms of end-markets, the better it can be at managing margins during a down cycle. In the conference, management mentioned that they are targeting decremental margins of 25% or less in a downturn. Overall, my outlook for TEX remains positive. It is only a matter of time before the supply chain eases and TEX will be able to rundown its elevated backlog. This backlog rundown coupled with M&As should result in TEX enjoying a short-term acceleration on earnings against easy comps, which will reflect very well on a headline basis.

Valuation

When I last wrote about TEX, the stock was trading around its 10-year average of 8.8x forward EBITDA. Because of the stock price correction, the stock is now trading at 6x, which is 1 standard deviation below the average. I believe the stock is currently undervalued. In my model (based on consensus figures), a positive re-rate in multiples will be the primary driver of stock upside. As the scenario I mentioned above comes to fruition (backlog rundown + M&A deals result in strong acceleration in growth), I expect the market to attach a premium to where it is trading today. However, I do not expect it to return to 8.8x because growth in FY24 will face tough FY23 comps.

Conclusion

I have revised my recommendation from neutral to a buy. The 1Q23 results were impressive, with increased sales and margins, along with higher-than-expected EPS. The demand cycle for TEX remains strong due to low dealer stock and aged fleets in. Looking ahead, I have a positive outlook for TEX, expecting improved supply chain conditions, backlog reduction, and strategic M&A to drive growth and margin.