With the Bitcoin halving approaching, traders are closely monitoring market dynamics, particularly professional traders, to gauge sentiment. Historically, the anticipation surrounding halving events has typically led to bullish sentiment in the months following rather than on the exact halving date. This is due to the delayed impact of reduced mining output on the market.

Bitcoin miners tend to accumulate rather than liquidate holdings daily, especially anticipating a bullish market, bolstered by Bitcoin’s 59% appreciation year-to-date in 2024. This expectation of market appreciation further tightens supply, potentially driving prices higher.

However, analysts caution against simplistic post-halving price surge expectations, noting Bitcoin’s price trajectory is influenced by various factors, including economic trends, investor risk appetite, monetary policies, and correlations with the stock market. Relying solely on historical halving patterns may be overly optimistic.

Neutral-to-bullish call options dominate the June 28 expiry, with professional traders turning to options strategies to leverage positions with minimal upfront deposits, avoiding direct liquidation risk found in futures markets.

Open interest for options expiring on June 28 at Deribit has reached $4.5 billion, showcasing a significant call-to-put options imbalance, with bullish positions outweighing bearish ones threefold. However, this perspective warrants deeper analysis, considering the cryptocurrency community’s tendency towards optimism.

While there are call options targeting as high as $140,000 and $200,000 for the June 28 expiry, some appear overly ambitious. Realistic call options open interest is around $2.72 billion, excluding bets on prices exceeding $90,000. Conversely, put options placed before Bitcoin’s surge over $50,000 have diminished the likelihood of profitability, with open interest in puts at $57,000 or higher at a scant $250 million.

Bitcoin’s unexpected performance surge, attributed to factors like the approval of a spot exchange-traded fund in the U.S., reduced inflation to 3%, and absence of a predicted global economic recession by June 28, caught bears off guard. Consequently, bearish scenarios tied to the Bitcoin halving seem increasingly unlikely.

Speculations about a “death spiral” due to reduced block rewards and decreased miner participation have been consistently debunked. Bitcoin’s network adjusts its difficulty every 2016 block, ensuring stability amid fluctuating hash rate levels.

In a hypothetical scenario where Bitcoin’s price drops to $47,000 by June 28, a 32% decrease from current levels, put options open interest would be $422 million, while calling options up to $46,000 account for a $670 million exposure, highlighting a market inclination towards neutral-to-bullish strategies for the Bitcoin halving, at least by the June 28 expiry.

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Mezo, an innovative Bitcoin “economic layer” developed by Thesis, has successfully raised $21 million in funding, the company announced.

Accepting deposits in BTC, TBTC, and WBTC, Mezo emerges from stealth mode with substantial financial backing, primarily led by Pantera Capital. Other investors participating in the funding round include Multicoin Capital, Hack VC, ParaFi Capital, Nascent, Draper Associates, Primitive Ventures, and Asymmetric Ventures.

Matt Luongo, CEO of Thesis and founder of Mezo, revealed that the fundraising for Mezo commenced in December and concluded recently. The $21 million funding was secured through two tranches, although specific details regarding valuation and the structure of the round remain undisclosed. Nevertheless, Mezo will introduce its native token.

What is Mezo?

Described as a Bitcoin “economic layer,” Mezo aims to build an ecosystem of applications tailored to users’ economic needs, spanning from groceries to tuition. Luongo articulated the ambition of Mezo to extend the Bitcoin network, aiming to incorporate approximately 25% of the world’s economy onto the blockchain, a scale comparable to the current size of the US economy.

Utilizing “proof of HODL” as its consensus mechanism, Mezo enables users to secure the network by staking BTC and MEZO tokens. This approach aligns Mezo economically with BTC holders, who can stake and earn rewards for their participation in running the network.

With over $26 million in total value locked through bitcoin deposits, Mezo has initiated its operations, emphasizing the importance of locking bitcoin deposits for accruing a higher HODL score, which functions as a points program.

Moreover, upon joining Mezo, users receive five one-time invitations to extend to their friends, with the platform subsequently distributing reciprocal earnings based on the duration and amount of their friends’ Bitcoin deposits made through these invitations.

In addition to BTC, Mezo supports deposits of TBTC and WBTC, both wrapped bitcoin variants developed by Thesis.

The funding round for Mezo elevates the total funding for all Thesis projects to over $90 million, according to Luongo. Currently, 48 individuals are engaged in Thesis projects, with plans underway to nearly double the headcount for this year.

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Cryptocurrency ETFs are grappling with a 5.99% decrease in value as both Bitcoin and Ethereum suffer losses, exacerbated by the SEC’s postponement of spot ETF approvals, which further impacts ETFs like EFUT and AETH.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a challenging week, particularly affecting crypto Exchange-Traded Funds. Reflecting setbacks in major cryptocurrencies, the overall theme of cryptocurrency investments witnessed a decline of 5.99%. Bitcoin dipped by 2.25%, falling below the $70k mark, while Ethereum faced a steeper drop of 6.5%.

SEC and Spot ETF Challenges

The recent action by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) triggered profit-taking. The SEC initiated a three-week comment period regarding proposals for spot Ether ETFs, effectively delaying any potential approval until at least May. This delay tempered investor optimism, especially among those expecting swift approvals for spot ETFs, which directly represent cryptocurrency investments rather than derivatives.

Impact on Crypto ETF Performance

Specific crypto ETFs felt the repercussions of these developments. The Ether Tracker Euro ETC (ETHEREUM XBTE) and the 21Shares Ethereum Staking ETP (AETH) experienced declines of 7.96% and 7.63%, respectively. These declines underscore the heightened sensitivity of crypto ETFs to regulatory decisions and market sentiment as investors navigate the uncertain landscape of cryptocurrency regulations and their implications for spot ETFs.

The SEC’s decision to postpone spot ETF approvals has cast doubt on the future of Ether ETFs, momentarily halting the momentum that had been building in anticipation of broader institutional acceptance. While these ETFs provide a regulated avenue for investors to access cryptocurrencies, the road ahead appears murky with regulatory uncertainties, affecting both investor confidence and ETF performance.

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