Author: Michelle Lazo

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, has successfully raised $45 million in a Series B funding round amid a surge in popularity leading up to the U.S. presidential election. The round was led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, with notable contributions from Ethereum’s creator Vitalik Buterin, 1confirmation, ParaFi, and Dragonfly Capital, according to Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, who communicated with CoinDesk via Telegram. The company’s valuation in this round was not disclosed.

This latest investment follows a previously undisclosed $25 million Series A funding round led by General Catalyst and includes a $4 million seed round from 2020, bringing Polymarket’s total raised funds to over $70 million. To support its next growth phase, Polymarket has appointed Richard Jaycobs as the head of market expansion, who previously held executive roles at traditional finance firms, including President of Cantor Exchange and CEO of The Clearing Corporation.

Polymarket is recognized as a leading platform for building prediction markets on cryptocurrency infrastructure. In these markets, participants place bets on the outcomes of real-world events within a specified timeframe, ranging from sports games to political events. For instance, a current market on Polymarket is gauging whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot exchange-traded fund for Ethereum by May 31, with “Yes” shares trading at 16 cents, suggesting a 16% probability of approval.

These markets are touted not just as gambling venues but as tools for gaining a more accurate understanding of public sentiment and providing more reliable forecasts than traditional polls and punditry, a standpoint long advocated by economist Robin Hanson.

Despite a regulatory setback in 2022 that barred Polymarket from serving U.S. residents under a Commodity Futures Trading Commission settlement, the platform continues to see significant betting activity. This year alone, $202 million has been wagered on various events, with over $125 million staked on the presidential election. This exclusion from the U.S. market contrasts with Kalshi, the only CFTC-regulated prediction market, which faces potential regulatory challenges from the CFTC’s recent proposals to ban election-related bets, a rule that would not affect Polymarket.

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The Bitcoin network witnessed a steep 99% drop in daily Rune etchings, plummeting to just 157 Runes on Monday from a high of 14,700 in late April, as reported by Dune Analytics. This significant decline in the activity of the Rune etchings, which are part of a fungible token protocol, has dramatically decreased transaction fee income for Bitcoin miners.

On April 26, the network recorded a peak of 23,061 Rune etchings, but the recent slump has resulted in transaction fees from these etchings dropping to a mere US$3,835 on Monday. Despite this downturn, Rune transactions have remained a dominant force in Bitcoin network activity to date, with over 91,200 Runes etched on the Bitcoin blockchain.

The Runes protocol was launched on April 20, initially providing a substantial boost to miners’ earnings by generating significant transaction fees. This was particularly beneficial following the fourth Bitcoin halving event, which reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC but was offset by increased transaction volumes from Rune etchings.

Developed by Ordinals creator Casey Rodarmor, the Runes protocol aims to efficiently utilize block space for creating fungible tokens, adhering to Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output (UTXO) model, offering a more streamlined approach compared to BRC-20s. However, some Bitcoin core developers have expressed concerns, criticizing the Runes protocol for potentially exploiting vulnerabilities within the Bitcoin network.

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Bitcoin mining companies are reducing their operational scale as revenues have significantly decreased, following a recent industry adjustment known as the “halving,” according to a May 13 Coinshares report. The Bitcoin network’s seven-day rolling average hash rate, which measures the computing power used to mine Bitcoin, showed a sharp decline from an all-time high of approximately 650 exahashes per second (EH/s) on April 19 to 586 EH/s by May 11.

The halving event, which occurred on April 19, cut the reward for mining a block of Bitcoin from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively slashing the miners’ revenue by nearly half. This reduction has forced miners to adopt cost-cutting measures such as optimizing energy expenditures, enhancing mining efficiency, and securing better terms for hardware procurement.

Despite these challenges, CoinShares’ analysis based on Q4 2023 figures suggests that publicly listed Bitcoin mining firms, like Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) and Riot Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT), are still profitable, with the average production cost per Bitcoin estimated at $53,000, while Bitcoin traded at $63,000 on Monday. However, profitability has diminished compared to pre-halving levels.

Additionally, new Bitcoin applications such as Ordinals and Runes have increased on-chain activity and network transaction fees, offering another revenue stream for miners. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, transaction fees now constitute 7% of miner revenue, a significant increase from 1% two years ago. This change reflects the evolving landscape and adaptation strategies within the Bitcoin mining industry.

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Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has taken significant steps toward resuming its operations in India by registering with the country’s Financial Intelligence Unit, as confirmed by a senior FIU official. The registration comes after Binance was suspended from operating in India this past December due to non-compliance with local regulations, amid a broader crackdown by the financial watchdog on offshore crypto exchanges operating without proper registration.

To operate legally, virtual digital asset service providers, such as cryptocurrency exchanges, are required to register with the FIU and adhere to the country’s anti-money laundering regulations. Although Binance has now registered, it must still resolve pending penalties for its prior non-compliance before it can restart operations, with the exact fines yet to be finalized, according to Vivek Aggarwal, director of the FIU.

In addition to Binance, the FIU issued show cause notices to nine other offshore cryptocurrency exchanges in December 2023 for similar compliance failures. Moreover, the FIU had requested the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology to block online access to these platforms.

Another crypto exchange, KuCoin, has successfully navigated this process, having registered with the FIU and resumed operations after settling a fine of 3.45 million rupees (approximately $41,313). KuCoin made its registration public in March but had initially withheld details regarding the penalty.

As of now, representatives from Binance and KuCoin have not provided any comments regarding these developments.

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